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BREAKING NEWS: Amazing New Evidence Details a Far More Intricate Relation Between Galactic Cosmic Rays, Solar Weather and Terrestrial (Earth) Weather

Before I launch into this new amazing news, most of which affirms Science Of Cycles research, I need to give notice of a snafu which occurred on my server holding back your emails to me, and just at the time I requested your feedback on my prediction record as regards to the Aug. 2017 full solar eclipse.

I really would like your feedback on the outcomes which occurred during the 24+ day window and its associated cause i.e. generated gravity wave, sudden cooling and warming of weather, and the related shift in the jet stream and ocean current. Last but not least, the flux of charged particles in the way of galactic cosmic rays and its effect on the human brain and emotions.  To respond, send an email to mitch@scienceofcycles.com

I also wish to thank those who sent in a donation which added to about $300.00, it provided some relief, but covered about 1/4 of what’s needed. If you can add to this much needed fund raiser, please go to one of the banners below.

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BREAKING NEWS: Three Powerful Published Research Study’s Play a Large Role in Terrestrial (Earth) Weather, Space Weather, and Galactic Cycles

Evidence for a Time Lag in Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The solar modulation effect of cosmic rays in the heliosphere is an and particle dependent phenomenon that arises from a combination of basic particle transport processes such as diffusion, convection, adiabatic cooling, and drift motion.

Making use of a large collection of time-resolved cosmic-ray data from recent space missions, we construct a simple predictive model of solar modulation that depends on direct solar-physics inputs: the number of solar sunspots and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet.

Under this framework, we present calculations of cosmic-ray proton spectra, positron/electron and antiproton/proton ratios, and their time dependence in connection with the evolving solar activity.

We report evidence for a time lag of approximately eight months, between solar-activity data and cosmic-ray flux measurements in space, which reflects the dynamics of the formation of the modulation region. This result enables us to forecast the cosmic-ray flux near Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity.

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New Discovery: Cosmic Ray Flux Caused by Tidal Disruption Events

Tidal Disruption Events (TDEs) are processes where stars are torn apart by the strong gravitational force near to a massive or supermassive black hole. If a jet is launched in such a process, particle acceleration may take place in internal shocks. Daniel Biehl, Department of Physics, Arizona State University and co-author Denise Boncioli, Dept. of Physics, University of Rome Tor Vergata published their paper in the journal American Physical Society.

We demonstrate that jetted TDEs can simultaneously describe the observed neutrino and cosmic ray fluxes at the highest energies if stars with heavier compositions, such as carbon-oxygen white dwarfs, are tidally disrupted and these events are sufficiently abundant.

We simulate the photo-hadronic interactions both in the TDE jet and in the propagation through the extragalactic space and we show that the simultaneous description of Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Ray (UHECR) and PeV neutrino data implies that a nuclear cascade in the jet develops by photo-hadronic interactions.

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NEW: Daily/Monthly Variation of Cosmic Ray Intensity

The solar modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) is revealed in the record of neutron monitors in terms of daily variation. Both day-to-day and long-term daily variations have been investigated for the period from 1965 to 2015. This was done simultaneously along with geomagnetic disruption as measured in the Ap Index over a twelve month period which was averaged independently and collectively on per month basis.

Here the Ap index was used as a placeholder for solar flux on interplanetary disturbances. It was discovered that on an average basis, the diurnal (daily) amplitude of cosmic rays is considerably lower in the years of high Ap values. During periods of low solar flux, the average daily amplitude of cosmic rays was high through the period 1965 to 2015.

Thank you for your continued support. We’re now about half way there.

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Science Of Cycles Research Support Fund

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Science Of Cycles Disaster Relief Fund

Be a part of Science Of Cycles Multi-Disaster Relief Initiative. Lets come together and help those who need a helping hand. Notice I did not specify a hurricane name, why? Because there is more than Harvey and Irma heading our way. The banner is set up for you to be able to place any amount you wish.   Cheers, Mitch

 

 

Costa Rica Struck by 6.8 Magnitude Earthquake

Costa Rica was shaken by a 6.8 magnitude earthquake at 8:28 pm (local time), with an epicenter approximately 15 km southwest of the Central Pacific beach town of Esterillos, according to the Volcanological and Seismological Observatory of Costa Rica (OVISCORI). The USGS has it listed as a 6.5 mag.

Local residents reported feeling the quake strongly in the Central Valley, where buildings swayed and some residents headed out into the streets. Reports of the shake came in as far away as Puerto Viejo de Limón on the opposite coast.

A resident living in the Jacó area, near the epicenter of the major quake and two aftershocks, said that people there had reported artwork and other objects falling from the walls and breaking. Reports from Playa Hermosa, even closer to the epicenter, reported that while the experience was certainly terrifying, electricity was still on and no damage was visible from her vantage point.

Powerful 7.3 Magnitude Quake Hits Iran-Iraq Border

A 7.3 magnitude earthquake which struck the Iraq-Iran border has killed dozens of people on the Iranian side and injured hundreds more, according to state media. The US Geological Survey (USGS) said Sunday’s powerful quake hit close to Halabjah, southeast of Sulaymaniyah, a city in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq.

The tremor, which was felt as far away as Qatar, struck at 9:18pm local time (18:18) GMT. Its epicenter was at a depth of 33.9km. Iranian news agency ISNA said at least 61 people were killed and 300 injured in Kermanshah province on the Iraqi border.

Most of the victims are believed to be in the town of Sarpol-e Zahab. There were fears the death toll would rise. Earlier on Sunday, Faramarz Akbari, governor of Iran’s Qasr-e Shirin city, had told Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency that there were at least two fatalities. He also said that estimating damages is impossible due to a massive power cut.

Evidence for a Time-Lag in Solar Resonance of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The solar modulation effect of cosmic rays in the heliosphere is an energy, time, and particle dependent phenomenon that arises from a combination of basic particle transport processes such as diffusion, convection, adiabatic cooling, and drift motion.

Making use of a large collection of time-resolved cosmic-ray data from recent space missions, we construct a simple predictive model of solar modulation that depends on direct solar-physics inputs: the number of solar sunspots and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet.

Under this framework, we present calculations of cosmic-ray proton spectra, positron/electron and antiproton/proton ratios, and their time dependence in connection with the evolving solar activity. We report evidence for a time lag of approximately eight months, between solar-activity data and cosmic-ray flux measurements in space, which reflects the dynamics of the formation of the modulation region. This result enables us to forecast the cosmic-ray flux near Earth well in advance by monitoring solar activity.

Wind Speed Isn’t The Best Way To Measure Hurricane Ferocity

From 1 to 5, the numbers we use to categorize hurricanes are ingrained in the minds of millions of Americans from Texas to Maine.

But that famed Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, which only measures wind speed, is not the best way to gauge a storm’s ferocity, according to a study released Wednesday.

“Sandy is the classic example,” said Dan Chavas, an atmospheric scientist at Purdue University who led the study. “It was a very big storm, but in terms of maximum wind speed it was arguably not a hurricane.”

A better way involves barometric pressure, the study said. Specifically, it’s the difference in pressure between the center of the storm and outside it, which is officially known as the “central pressure deficit.”

“If you looked at the central pressure deficit, you would have expected Sandy to cause a lot of damage,” said Chavas. “But if you used maximum wind speed, as people usually do, you wouldn’t expect it to do the damage that it did.”

Sandy killed more than 150 people and caused $70.2 billion damage in the U.S., NOAA said.

Economic damages are better predicted by variations in central pressure than by peak storm wind speed since the central pressure combines both wind speed and storm size, the study found. The size of the storm is a critical factor in damage potential, particularly due to storm surge.

The limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale have recently come under scrutiny. Wind speed is often only an estimate, and it’s also highly localized because it depends on a speed sustained for a short time in one location. However, it’s popular with the public and media because of its simplicity.

New ways of categorizing hurricanes have been proposed by many groups over the years, including the Hurricane Severity Index, the Cyclone Damage Potential Index and the Integrated Kinetic Energy Index. All take into account factors other than wind speed, the idea being that more variables make a scale more valuable. None have caught on yet.

The study appeared in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature Communications.

La Niña Is Here. What Does That Mean For Our Winter?

La Niña, the cooler sibling of El Niño, is here.

The La Niña climate pattern — a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean — is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and around the world, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring.

Federal government forecasters announced La Niña’s formation Thursday. The Climate Prediction Center says this year’s La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is on the weak side, but it should still continue through the winter.

This is the second consecutive La Niña winter. Last year’s episode was unusually brief, forming in November and gone by February.

A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to the prediction center. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter.

New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said.

Because La Niña shifts storm tracks, it often brings more snow to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. “Typically La Niña is not a big snow year in the mid-Atlantic,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “You have a better chance up in New England.”

Texas A&M University agricultural economist Bruce McCarl said La Niña years are often bad for agriculture in Texas and the surrounding region. U.S. production of most crops — except corn — generally goes down in La Niña years, according to research by McCarl.

Globally, La Niña often brings heavy rainfall to Indonesia, the Philippines, northern Australia and southern Africa.

The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a see-saw dance of warmer and cooler seawater in the central Pacific Ocean