NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center Is Forecasting A 75-Percent Chance That The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Will Be Near- Or Above-Normal.

Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.

“With the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm’s way is unprecedented,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.”

NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

The possibility of a weak El Nino developing, along with near-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, are two of the factors driving this outlook. These factors are set upon a backdrop of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development and have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.

“NOAA’s observational and modeling enhancements for the 2018 season put us on the path to deliver the world’s best regional and global weather models,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction. “These upgrades are key to improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts, allowing NOAA to deliver the best science and service to the nation.”

NOAA’s suite of sophisticated technologies – from next-generation models and satellite data to new and improved forecast and graphical products – enable decision makers and the general public to take action before, during, and after hurricanes, helping to build a more “Weather-Ready Nation.” New tools available this year to assist in hurricane forecasts and communications include:

NOAA’s fleet of earth-observing satellites is more robust than ever with the successful launch of the GOES-17 satellite in March. This satellite, along with the GOES-16 satellite – now GOES-East – contribute to a comprehensive picture of weather throughout the Western Hemisphere, allowing forecasters to observe storms as they develop.

The new polar-orbiting satellite, NOAA-20, will join the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite and use a suite of sophisticated instruments to gather high-resolution data from around the globe to feed NOAA’s weather models, driving the 3-7 day weather forecast that is critical to preparedness and effective evacuations.

The National Weather Service will run a version of the Global Forecast System (called FV3 GFS) with a new dynamic core alongside the current GFS model – often referred to as the American model – during the 2018 season. This will mark the first dynamic core upgrade to NOAA’s flagship weather model in more than 35 years, representing the first step in re-engineering NOAA’s models to provide the best possible science-based predictions for the nation.

NOAA’s hurricane-specific model – the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system – will be upgraded to offer greater resolution than ever before, increasing model resolution from 1.2 miles to 0.9 miles (2 km to 1.5 km) near the center of a storm. Additionally, the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model was first implemented in 2017 and will undergo upgrades for the 2018 season to include greater resolution, new physics and coupling with ocean models.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will make the Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds graphics operational for this hurricane season. One graphic displays the “earliest reasonable” arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds, at which point further preparedness activities could be hindered. A second graphic displays the “most-likely” arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds.

“Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector and the public,” said acting FEMA Deputy Administrator Daniel Kaniewski. “It only takes one storm to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare. Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have a communication and evacuation plan? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.”

In addition to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins. An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes. The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 3 to 6 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

NOAA will update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.

BREAKING NEWS: Kilauea Volcano Has Deeper Roots Than Most Understand

NOTE: I will be on Coast to Coast AM radio with George Noory for a news brief on Kilauea volcano. Radio Stations: Click Here

Kilauea is one of the world’s most active volcanoes. It is a shield-type volcano that makes up the southeastern side of the Big Island of Hawaii. The volcano rises 4,190 feet (1,227 meters) above sea level and is about 14 percent of the land area of the Big Island. The summit caldera contains a lava lake known as Halema’uma’u that is said to be the home of the Hawaiian volcano goddess, Pele.

Cecily Wolfe of the University of Hawaii, used sea bottom sensors to identify how seismic waves propagate through the pliable mantle layer beneath the Earth’s crust. She believes her evidence has pinpointed the location of the mantle plume. However, Qin Cao, an MIT seismologist, believes a giant deep thermal anomaly hundreds of miles wide located far west of Hawaii is what feeds the island’s volcanoes.

As both well researched hypothesis have merit, as of the time of this writing we still do not have conclusive evidence as to the source. Wolfe says: “I acknowledges the importance of the new find, but believes it will take much more work to truly explain how her thermal plume and the “pancake” of hot rocks are related and how they provide the heat source for Kilauea and the other active volcanoes of the Hawaiian Islands.”

“We need to think about different types of mantle plumes,” Cao said. “The picture of the internal dynamics of the Earth and material-exchange processes between the upper and lower mantle are more complicated than people thought before.”

We know one thing – the residents of Hawaii are not so concerned on why the eruption is so large and everlasting, but ‘when’ will it stop….

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BREAKING NEWS: ‘Lost’ Asteroid To Pass Close To Earth Tuesday Evening

An asteroid that was lost by tracking satellites eight years ago has been spotted again as it prepares to make an unnervingly close pass by the Earth on May 15. While the giant space rock is expected to miss the planet, the asteroid will give sky watchers a chance to see the action unfold live online.

On Nov. 30, 2010, astronomers discovered an asteroid that could be as large as one of the Great Pyramids of ancient Egypt. It passed within nine million miles of Earth and then scientists lost track of it as it headed back to the outer solar system.

Asteroid 2010 WC9, which is about 426 feet in diameter, was observed for too short of a time for astronomers to be able to predict when its orbit might bring it back to our neighborhood.

This same asteroid is back and about to buzz by us about 70 times closer (126,000 miles away) than it did eight years ago. That puts it at about half the distance between the Earth and moon, making it one of the closest approaches ever observed by such a sizable asteroid.

London’s Northolt Branch Observatories, which helped to rediscover the asteroid, will be broadcasting the flyby live on Facebook. Don’t worry, the broadcast won’t be like a countdown to the apocalypse. 2010 WC9 will sail by the planet safely at about 6:05 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on May 15.

While this asteroid isn’t a threat (this time) it does emphasize the need to keep a watchful eye on the sky to catalog and track as many space rocks as possible.

“There are lots of asteroids and comets in our solar system and it’s impossible to predict the trajectories of all of these objects, but we need to try,} University of Saskatchewan astronomy professor Daryl Janzen said in a news release on May 10.

Just last month, astronomers discovered a slightly smaller asteroid just hours before it passed by the Earth and came even closer to hitting the moon.

On the cosmic scale, these asteroids are large enough to do some damage if they were to impact Earth, especially near a populated area. However, they aren’t considered big enough to do the kind of catastrophic damage caused by the space rock believed to have wiped out the dinosaurs.

“There is an extremely low probability of the planet coming into contact with one of these large near-Earth objects in our lifetime, but there is really good evidence that it happened in the past and led to mass extinction on the planet,” Janzen added. “So, although the probability is low, it’s important to discover as many NEOs as we can, so that if one does enter into a collision course with Earth, we can try to do something about it.”

UPDATE : Hawaii’s Kilauea Volcano Eruption Destroys 9 Homes

PAHOA, Hawaii — The number of homes destroyed by lava shooting out of openings in the ground created by Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano has climbed to nine. Some of the more than 1,700 people who evacuated prepared for the possibility they may not return for quite some time.

“I have no idea how soon we can get back,” said Todd Corrigan, who left his home in Leilani Estates with his wife on Friday as lava burst through the ground three or four blocks from their home. They spent the night on the beach in their car and began looking for a vacation rental.

Hawaii County civil defense officials said two new fissures opened overnight, bringing the total to nine that opened in the neighborhood since Thursday. U.S. Geological Survey volcanologist Wendy Stovall said that with the two new fissures, the total was 10, though one of the new ones had already stopped producing lava.

Scientists said Kilauea was likely to release more lava through additional vents, but they were unable to predict exactly where. Leilani Estates, a subdivision in the mostly rural district of Puna, is at greatest risk. Authorities ordered more than 1,700 residents to evacuate from there and nearby Lanipuna Gardens.

Talmadge Magno, administrator for Hawaii County Civil Defense, told CBS News correspondent Carter Evans that it’s not known for how long the volcanic activity will continue.

“That’s the sad part about it,” Magno told Evans. “It could be happening for a long time, or on the other hand, like I said, mysteriously it could just end.”

Leilani Estates, a subdivision in the mostly rural district of Puna, is at greatest risk. Authorities ordered more than 1,700 residents to evacuate from there and nearby Lanipuna Gardens.

Hundreds of small earthquakes continued to rumble through the area Saturday, one day after a magnitude-6.9 temblor hit — the largest earthquake to hit Hawaii in more than 40 years. Magma moving through Kilauea set off the earthquakes, said geologists, who warned of aftershocks.

Authorities cautioned sulfuric gas pouring out of the vents also posed dangers, particularly to the elderly and people with respiratory problems. Hawaii County spokeswoman Kanani Aton said some residents may be allowed to return home briefly to pick up medicine or take care of pets if sulfur dioxide levels drop.

Tesha “Mirah” Montoya, 45, said the threat of toxic fumes wasn’t enough to make her family evacuate, but the tipping point was the earthquakes.

“I felt like the whole side of our hill was going to explode,” she said. “The earthquake was what made us start running and start throwing guinea pigs and bunnies in the car.”

Montoya, her husband and daughter don’t know how long they will be away from the three-story octagonal house they built nearly 20 years ago in a patch of “raw jungle.”

“My heart and soul’s there,” she said in a phone interview from a cabin on the north side of the Big Island, where the family had hunkered down. “I’m nothing without the land. It’s part of my being.”

Gary McMillan said his home is about 3,000 feet from one of the fissures in Leilani Estates. He monitored remote cameras set up in his home and said his home was still intact.

He’s living out of his van with his wife at the nearby community center and constantly thinks about things they left behind, but understands why authorities evacuated residents.

“I was a critical care nurse for 37 years, so I understand the health implications and the dangers involved,” McMillan said.

Kilauea has been continuously erupting since 1983 and is one of the world’s most active volcanoes. In 2014, lava burned a house and smothered a cemetery as it approached Pahoa, the town closest to Leilani Estates. But this flow stalled just before it reached Pahoa’s main road.

Nearly 30 years ago, lava slowly covered an entire town, Kalapana, over the period of about a year.

BREAKING NEWS: New Massive 6.9 Earthquake Hits Near Kilauea Volcano

A 6.9 magnitude earthquake has rocked Hawaii near an erupting volcano on Friday, just an hour after a 5.0 -magnitude earthquake also hit nearby. The massive 6.9 quake was centered near the south flank of Kilauea volcano, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center says: “No tsunami is expected, however, this earthquake generated small sea level changes at Hilo (20 cm amplitude), Kapoho (40 cm amplitude), Honuapo (15 cm amplitude)”.

Hawaii County Civil Defense says Friday’s 5.4 earthquake was centered near the south flank of Kilauea volcano. Officials say there’s no tsunami threat to the Big Island.

Both quakes hit about 1.2 miles from Kapaahu and 17.8 miles from Hawaiian Paradise Park – starting at about 2:30 p.m. PST.

The quakes come after a volcanic eruption that began Thursday, which spewed molten lava that chewed through forests and bubbled up on paved streets. One resident described the scene as “a curtain of fire.”

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Science Of Cycles Research Fund

Your assistance has always been at the core of this model, without you we fail. Below is an example of how Science Of Cycles keeps you tuned in and knowledgeable of what we are discovering, and how some of these changes will affect our communities and ways of living. We are maintaining our open ended donation so you can place amount of your choice.                  Cheers, Mitch

 

Breaking News : Kilauea Volcano Erupts in Hawaii, Forcing Evacuations

The eruption of lava from the Kilauea volcano forced residents in two subdivisions on the island of Hawaii to evacuate Thursday.

Lava spewed from a crack in the earth following days of small earthquakes around the volcano. Photos and drone footage showed cracks opening up across green yards and roadways and molten rock bursting out.

The area has experienced hundreds of small earthquakes in recent days. The largest, a magnitude 5.0, hit about 10:30 a.m. Thursday. It was centered on the southeastern coast of the island of Hawaii, with a depth of four miles.

Hawaii County ordered the mandatory evacuation of the Leilani Estates and Lanipuna Gardens subdivisions at 5:30 p.m. Thursday. Officials opened two community centers to shelter people who fled their homes.

No deaths or injuries were reported.

One resident, Ikaika Marzo, told The Honolulu Star-Advertiser that lava fountains were shooting 150 feet into the air about 5:30 p.m. and that lava had spread over a 200-yard-wide area behind a house in Leilani Estates.

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“It sounds like a jet engine. It’s going hard,” he told the newspaper.

Leilani Estates had a population of 1,560 in the 2010 census, but residents say the evacuations could affect thousands of people.

“People are scared,” said Matthew Purvis, a pastor who runs a bakery in the town of Pahoa.

“It’s not just evacuating people, it’s their things and their animals and their livelihoods,” he added.

Mr. Purvis drove a van into the threatened subdivisions to help residents flee.

“I don’t think people thought this would actually happen,” he said. “It was just a moment’s notice. It’s pretty wild.”

The Hawaii Volcano Observatory said white vapor and blue fumes began emanating from the cracked areas Thursday afternoon, followed by spatter — blobs of lava blown into the air — just before 5 p.m.

“The opening phases of fissure eruptions are dynamic,” the observatory warned. “Additional vents and new lava outbreaks may occur and at this time it is not possible to say where new vents may occur.”

An eruption from the Puu Oo’ cone of Kilauea in 1983 has continued to flow, destroying houses in the Royal Gardens subdivision. In 1990 more than 100 homes in the Kalapana community were destroyed by lava flow.

An eruption from Kilauea in 2014 flowed down the surface of the volcano and burned a house in Pahoa. Now residents worry that more structures could be threatened in the area, which is one of the fastest-growing in the state.

“Living on a volcano, everybody has got pretty thick skin. They know the risk,” said Ryan Finlay, who lives in Pahoa and runs an online trade school. “Lava for the most part has flown to the ocean the last 30 years. Everybody gets in a comfort zone. The last couple weeks, everything changed.”

India Dust Storms: More Than 125 Killed As Storms Continue

At least 125 people are now reported to have died in fierce dust storms in northern India, with officials warning of more bad weather to come.

High-speed winds and lightning devastated many villages, bringing down walls and leaving dozens injured.

An Uttar Pradesh relief commissioner’s office spokesperson told AFP news agency the death toll was the highest from such storms in at least 20 years.

Officials have said the death toll could rise as more bodies are found.

Wind speeds were around 132 km/h (82mph) accompanied by hail storms and heavy lightning, officials said.

Fear amid the ruins

Villagers in Badhera, in the worst affected district of Agra in Uttar Pradesh, say they had had absolutely no warning of the storm that devastated their homes.

This is despite senior police officials saying that an alert was issued across the northern state.

The storm killed three people in the village, while several others were taken to hospital with serious injuries.

Ten-year-old Abhishek Kumar was asleep with his family when the storm struck. Their house collapsed, trapping him and his brother in the debris. Villagers dug them out but while Abhishek survived, his brother did not.

Dhambi Singh also suffered injuries but had to leave hospital to perform the last rites for his father who died when the roof of their house caved in.

Villagers are now worried as they have been warned that a similar storm could strike the region again in the next 72 hours.

“People should be alert,” the relief commissioner’s office told AFP.

In the two states of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, the storm brought down electricity, uprooted trees, destroyed houses and killed livestock.