BREAKING NEWS: PART-I Galactic Cosmic Rays Reaching Levels Never Before Seen

Today’s article will come as no surprise to the Science Of Cycles reader. There have been several articles SOC published regarding this issue going back to 2012. One of the highly contested questions regarding the pole shift is…’where’ on the time line of this cycle do we stand. I had addressed this question in previous articles. A significant and conveying influence to the makings of a magnetic pole reversal is the inundation of galactic cosmic rays, often referred to as ‘cosmic rays’.

NASA’s most recent study on galactic cosmic ray levels reaching Earth’s atmosphere are the highest ever reported. It is of no coincidence today’s GCR levels correspond with one of the lowest solar minimums observed. This is compounded by the Earth’s magnetic field weakening at a rate nobody saw coming. Researchers estimated the field was weakening about 5 percent per ‘century’, but new data revealed the field is actually weakening at 5 percent per ‘decade’, or 10 times faster than thought.

These GCRs are made up of high energy electrons, positrons, and other subatomic particles, which originate in sources outside the solar system and distributed throughout our galaxy Milky Way; hence the name ‘galactic cosmic rays’. Although periods of high solar activity such as solar flares, CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and coronal holes (solar winds) play a significant role in space and earth weather (including various natural phenomenon such as earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes and extreme weather) – studies indicate the periods of solar maximum are usually short-lived hovering around the 11 year cycle.

I propose that both solar rays and cosmic rays have an effect on Earth’s atmosphere, mantle, outer and inner core by generating the expansion and contraction of fluids and gas. Additionally, I suggest it is the more powerful highly energetic charged particles racing at nearly the speed of light which has the greater influence to Earth and all living things. It is the radiation from GCRs which can have – a yet to be determined minimal-or-significant measured effect on all forms of life. I would postulate the most sensitive species exposed to increasing radiation would be the most vulnerable – and in fact a significant number has already reached a point of extinction.

Coming Next: Part-II An Understanding of ‘Background’ and ‘Mass’ Extinctions (and why it applies to today’s galactic cosmic rays escalation.)


Science Of Cycles keeps you tuned-in and knowledgeable of what we are discovering, and how some of these changes will affect our communities and ways of living.

3-D Earth In The Making

A thorough understanding of the ‘solid Earth’ system is essential for deciphering the links between processes occurring deep inside Earth and those occurring nearer the surface that lead to seismic activity such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, the rise of mountains and the location of underground natural resources. Thanks to gravity and magnetic data from satellites along with seismology, scientists are on the way to modelling inner Earth in 3-D.

Solid Earth refers to the crust, mantle and core. Because these parts of our world are completely hidden from view, understanding what is going on deep below our feet can only be done by using indirect measurements.

New results, based on a paper published recently in Geophysical Journal International and presented at this week’s Living Planet Symposium, reveal how scientists are using a range of different measurements including satellite data along with seismological models to start producing a global 3-D Earth reference model.

The model will make a step change in being able to analyze Earth’s lithosphere, which is the rigid outer shell, and the underlying mantle to understand the link between Earth’s structure and the dynamic processes within.

Juan Carlos Afonso, from Australia’s Macquarie University and Norway’s Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics, said, “We are realising the new global model of Earth’s lithosphere and upper mantle by combining gravity anomalies, geoid height, and gravity gradients complemented with seismic, thermal, and rock information.”

Wolfgang Szwillus from Kiel University, added, “Data from ESA’s GOCE satellite mission served as input for the inversion. It is the first time that gravity gradients have been inverted on a global scale in such an integrated framework.”

While this is just a first step, 3-D Earth offers tantalizing insights into the deep structure of our world. For example, the new models of the thickness of the crust and the lithosphere are important for unexplored continents like Antarctica.

Jörg Ebbing from Kiel University, noted, “This is just a first step so we have more work to do, but we plan to release the 3-D Earth models in 2020.”

The 3-D Earth research, which involves scientists from nine institutes in six European countries, is funded through ESA’s Science for Society programme. ESA’s GOCE gravity mission and Swarm magnetic field mission are key to this research.

New Fallout From ‘The Collision That Changed The World’

When the landmass that is now the Indian subcontinent slammed into Asia about 50 million years ago, the collision changed the configuration of the continents, the landscape, global climate and more. Now a team of Princeton University scientists has identified one more effect: the oxygen in the world’s oceans increased, altering the conditions for life.

“These results are different from anything people have previously seen,” said Emma Kast, a graduate student in geosciences and the lead author on a paper coming out in Science on April 26. “The magnitude of the reconstructed change took us by surprise.”

Kast used microscopic seashells to create a record of ocean nitrogen over a period from 70 million years ago — shortly before the extinction of the dinosaurs — until 30 million years ago. This record is an enormous contribution to the field of global climate studies, said John Higgins, an associate professor of geosciences at Princeton and a co-author on the paper.

“In our field, there are records that you look at as fundamental, that need to be explained by any sort of hypothesis that wants to make biogeochemical connections,” Higgins said. “Those are few and far between, in part because it’s very hard to create records that go far back in time. Fifty-million-year-old rocks don’t willingly give up their secrets. I would certainly consider Emma’s record to be one of those fundamental records. From now on, people who want to engage with how the Earth has changed over the last 70 million years will have to engage with Emma’s data.”

In addition to being the most abundant gas in the atmosphere, nitrogen is key to all life on Earth. “I study nitrogen so that I can study the global environment,” said Daniel Sigman, Princeton’s Dusenbury Professor of Geological and Geophysical Sciences and the senior author on the paper. Sigman initiated this project with Higgins and then-Princeton postdoctoral researcher Daniel Stolper, who is now an assistant professor of Earth and planetary science at the University of California-Berkeley.

Every organism on Earth requires “fixed” nitrogen — sometimes called “biologically available nitrogen.” Nitrogen makes up 78% of our planet’s atmosphere, but few organisms can “fix” it by converting the gas into a biologically useful form. In the oceans, cyanobacteria in surface waters fix nitrogen for all other ocean life. As the cyanobacteria and other creatures die and sink downward, they decompose.

Nitrogen has two stable isotopes, 15N and 14N. In oxygen-poor waters, decomposition uses up “fixed” nitrogen. This occurs with a slight preference for the lighter nitrogen isotope, 14N, so the ocean’s 15N-to-14N ratio reflects its oxygen levels.

That ratio is incorporated into tiny sea creatures called foraminifera during their lives, and then preserved in their shells when they die. By analyzing their fossils — collected by the Ocean Drilling Program from the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and South Atlantic — Kast and her colleagues were able to reconstruct the 15N-to-14N ratio of the ancient ocean, and therefore identify past changes in oxygen levels.

Oxygen controls the distribution of marine organisms, with oxygen-poor waters being bad for most ocean life. Many past climate warming events caused decreases in ocean oxygen that limited the habitats of sea creatures, from microscopic plankton to the fish and whales that feed on them. Scientists trying to predict the impact of current and future global warming have warned that low levels of ocean oxygen could decimate marine ecosystems, including important fish populations.

When the researchers assembled their unprecedented geologic record of ocean nitrogen, they found that in the 10 million years after dinosaurs went extinct, the 15N-to-14N ratio was high, suggesting that ocean oxygen levels were low. They first thought that the warm climate of the time was responsible, as oxygen is less soluble in warmer water. But the timing told another story: the change to higher ocean oxygen occurred around 55 million years ago, during a time of continuously warm climate.

“Contrary to our first expectations, global climate was not the primary cause of this change in ocean oxygen and nitrogen cycling,” Kast said. The more likely culprit? Plate tectonics. The collision of India with Asia — dubbed “the collision that changed the world” by legendary geoscientist Wally Broecker, a founder of modern climate research — closed off an ancient sea called the Tethys, disturbing the continental shelves and their connections with the open ocean.

“Over millions of years, tectonic changes have the potential to have massive effects on ocean circulation,” said Sigman. But that doesn’t mean climate change can be discounted, he added. “On timescales of years to millenia, climate has the upper hand.”

33-Year Study Shows Increasing Ocean Winds And Wave Heights

Extreme ocean winds and wave heights are increasing around the globe, with the largest rise occurring in the Southern Ocean, University of Melbourne research shows.

Researchers Ian Young and Agustinus Ribal, from the University’s Department of Infrastructure Engineering, analysed wind speed and wave height measurements taken from 31 different satellites between 1985-2018, consisting of approximately 4 billion observations.

The measurements were compared with more than 80 ocean buoys deployed worldwide, making it the largest and most detailed dataset of its type ever compiled.

The researchers found that extreme winds in the Southern Ocean have increased by 1.5 metres per second, or 8 per cent, over the past 30 years. Extreme waves have increased by 30 centimetres, or 5 per cent, over the same period.

As the world’s oceans become stormier, Professor Young warns this has flow on effects for rising sea levels and infrastructure.

“Although increases of 5 and 8 per cent might not seem like much, if sustained into the future such changes to our climate will have major impacts,” Professor Young said.

“Flooding events are caused by storm surge and associated breaking waves. The increased sea level makes these events more serious and more frequent.

“Increases in wave height, and changes in other properties such as wave direction, will further increase the probability of coastal flooding.”

Professor Young said understanding changes in the Southern Ocean are important, as this is the origin for the swell that dominates the wave climate of the South Pacific, South Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

“Swells from the Southern Ocean determine the stability of beaches for much of the Southern Hemisphere, Professor Young said.

“These changes have impacts that are felt all over the world. Storm waves can increase coastal erosion, putting costal settlements and infrastructure at risk.”

International teams are now working to develop the next generation of global climate models to project changes in winds and waves over the next 100 years.

“We need a better understanding of how much of this change is due to long-term climate change, and how much is due to multi-decadal fluctuations, or cycles,” Professor Young said.

Major Deep Carbon Sink Linked To Microbes Found Near Volcano Chains

Up to about 19 percent more carbon dioxide than previously believed is removed naturally and stored underground between coastal trenches and inland chains of volcanoes, keeping the greenhouse gas from entering the atmosphere, according to a study in the journal Nature.

Surprisingly, subsurface microbes play a role in storing vast amounts of carbon by incorporating it in their biomass and possibly by helping to form calcite, a mineral made of calcium carbonate, Rutgers and other scientists found. Greater knowledge of the long-term impact of volcanoes on carbon dioxide and how it may be buffered by chemical and biological processes is critical for evaluating natural and human impacts on the climate. Carbon dioxide is the major greenhouse gas linked to global warming.

“Our study revealed a new way that tiny microorganisms can have an outsized impact on a large-scale geological process and the Earth’s climate,” said co-author Donato Giovannelli, a visiting scientist and former post-doc in the Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. He is now at the University of Naples in Italy.

Giovannelli is a principal investigator for the interdisciplinary study, which involves 27 institutions in six nations. Professor Costantino Vetriani in the Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences and Department of Biochemistry and Microbiology in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences is one of the Rutgers co-authors. The study covers how microbes alter the flow of volatile substances that include carbon, which can change from a solid or liquid to a vapor, in subduction zones. Such zones are where two tectonic plates collide, with the denser plate sinking and moving material from the surface into Earth’s interior.

The subduction, or geological process, creates deep-sea trenches and volcanic arcs, or chains of volcanoes, at the boundary of tectonic plates. Examples are in Japan and South and Central America. Arc volcanoes are hot spots for carbon dioxide emissions that re-enter the atmosphere from subducted material, which consists of marine sediment, oceanic crust and mantle rocks, Giovannelli said. The approximately 1,800-mile-thick mantle of semi-solid hot rock lies beneath the Earth’s crust.

The Earth’s core, mantle and crust account for 90 percent of carbon. The other 10 percent is in the ocean, biosphere and atmosphere. The subduction zone connects the Earth’s surface with its interior, and knowing how carbon moves between them is important in understanding one of the key processes on Earth and regulating the climate over tens of millions of years.

The study focused on the Nicoya Peninsula area of Costa Rica. The scientists investigated the area between the trench and the volcanic arc – the so-called forearc. The research reveals that volcanic forearc are a previously unrecognized deep sink for carbon dioxide.

Data Mining Digs Up Hidden Clues To Major California Earthquake Triggers

A powerful computational study of southern California seismic records has revealed detailed information about a plethora of previously undetected small earthquakes, giving a more precise picture about stress in the earth’s crust. A new publicly available catalog of these findings will help seismologists better understand the stresses triggering the larger earthquakes that occasionally rock the region.

“It’s very difficult to unpack what triggers larger earthquakes because they are infrequent, but with this new information about a huge number of small earthquakes, we can see how stress evolves in fault systems,” said Daniel Trugman, a post-doctoral fellow at Los Alamos National Laboratory and coauthor of a paper published in the journal Science today. “This new information about triggering mechanisms and hidden foreshocks gives us a much better platform for explaining how big quakes get started,” Trugman said.

Crunching the Numbers

Trugman and coauthors from the California Institute of Technology and Scripps Institution of Oceanography performed a massive data mining operation of the Southern California Seismic Network for real quakes buried in the noise. The team was able to detect, understand, and locate quakes more precisely, and they created the most comprehensive earthquake catalog to date. The work identified 1.81 million quakes — 10 times more earthquakes occurring 10 times more frequently than quakes previously identified using traditional seismology methods.

The team developed a comprehensive, detailed earthquake library for the entire southern California region, called the Quake Template Matching (QTM) catalog. They are using it to create a more complete map of California earthquake faults and behavior. This catalog may help researchers detect and locate quakes more precisely.

The team analyzed nearly two decades of data collected by the Southern California Seismic Network. The network, considered one of the world’s best seismic systems, amasses a catalog of quakes from 550 seismic monitoring stations in the region. The SCSN catalog is based entirely on the traditional approach: manual observation and visual analysis. But Trugman says this traditional approach misses many weak signals that are indicators of small earthquakes.

Matching Templates Is Key

The team improved on this catalog with data mining. Using parallel computing, they crunched nearly 100 terabytes of data across 200 graphics processing units. Zooming in at high resolution for a 10-year period, they performed template matching using seismograms (waveforms or signals) of previously identified quakes. To create templates, they cut out pieces of waveforms from previously recorded earthquakes and matched those waveforms to patterns of signals recorded simultaneously from multiple seismic stations. Template matching has been done before, but never at this scale.

“Now we can automate it and search exhaustively through the full waveform archive to find signals of very small earthquakes previously hidden in the noise,” Trugman explained.

Applying the templates found events quake precursors, foreshocks and small quakes that had been missed with manual methods. Those events often provide key physical and geographic details to help predict big quakes. The team also identified initiation sequences that reveal how quakes are triggered.

New details also revealed three-dimensional geometry and fault structures, which will support development of more realistic models.

Recently, Trugman and Los Alamos colleagues have applied machine learning to study earthquakes created in laboratory quake machines. That works has uncovered important details about earthquake behavior that may be used to predict quakes.

“In the laboratory, we see small events as precursors to big slip events, but we don’t see this consistently in the real world. This big data template-matching analysis bridges the gap,” he said. “And now we’ve discovered quakes previously discounted as noise and learned more about their behavior. If we can identify these sequences as foreshocks in real time, we can predict the big one.”

Tracking Records Of The Oldest Life Forms On Earth

The discovery provides a new characteristic ‘biosignature’ to track the remains of ancient life preserved in rocks which are significantly altered over billions of years and could help identify life elsewhere in the Solar System.

The research, published in two papers — one in the Journal of the Geological Society and another in Earth and Planetary Science Letters — solves the longstanding problem of how scientists can track records of life on Earth in highly metamorphosed rocks more than 3,700 million years old, with organic material often turning into the carbon-based mineral graphite.

In the first study, published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, the team analysed ten rock samples of banded iron formations (BIF) from Canada, India, China, Finland, USA and Greenland spanning over 2,000 million years of history.

They argue that carbon preserved in graphite-like crystals -‘graphitic carbon’- located alongside minerals such as apatite, which our teeth and bones are made of, and carbonate, are the biosignatures of the oldest life forms on Earth.

“Life on Earth is all carbon-based and over time, it decomposes into different substances, such as carbonate, apatite and oil. These become trapped in layers of sedimentary rock and eventually the oil becomes graphite during subsequent metamorphism in the crust,” explained Dr Dominic Papineau (UCL Earth Sciences, Center for Planetary Sciences and the London Centre for Nanotechnology).

“Our discovery is important as it is hotly debated whether the association of graphite with apatite is indicative of a biological origin of the carbon found in ancient rocks. We now have multiple strands of evidence that these mineral associations are biological in banded iron formations. This has huge implications for how we determine the origin of carbon in samples of extra-terrestrial rocks returned from elsewhere in the Solar System.”

The team investigated the composition of BIF rocks as they are almost always of Precambrian age (4,600 million years old to 541 million years old) and record information about the oldest environments on Earth.

For this, they analysed the composition of rocks ranging from 1,800 million years old to more than 3,800 million years old using a range of methods involving photons, electrons, and ions to characterise the composition of graphite and other minerals of potential biogenic origin.

“Previously, it was assumed that finding apatite and graphite together in ancient rocks was a rare occurrence but this study shows that it is commonplace in BIF across a range of rock metamorphic grades,” said team member Dr Matthew Dodd (UCL Earth Sciences and the London Centre for Nanotechnology).

The apatite and graphite minerals are thought to have two possible origins: mineralised products of decayed biological organic matter, which includes the breakdown of molecules in oil at high temperatures, or formation through non-biological reactions which are relevant to the chemistry of how life arose from non-living matter.

By showing evidence for the widespread occurrence of graphitic carbon in apatite and carbonate in BIF along with its carbon-isotope composition, the researchers conclude that the minerals are most consistent with a biological origin from the remains of Earth’s oldest life forms.

To investigate the extent to which high-temperature metamorphism causes a loss in molecular, elemental and isotope signatures from biological matter in rocks, they analysed the same minerals from a 1,850 million year old BIF rock in Michigan which had metamorphosed in 550 degree Celsius heat.

In this second study, published today in Journal of the Geological Society, the team show that several biosignatures are found in the graphitic carbon and the associated apatite, carbonate and clays.

They used a variety of high-tech instruments to detect traces of key molecules, elements, and carbon isotopes of graphite and combined this with several microscopy techniques to study tiny objects trapped in rocks which are invisible to the naked eye.

Together, all of their observations of the composition are consistent with an origin from decayed biomass, such as that of ancient animal fossils in museums, but which has been strongly altered by high temperatures.

“Our new data provide additional lines of evidence that graphite associated with apatite in BIF is most likely biological in origin. Moreover, by taking a range of observations from throughout the geological record, we resolve a long-standing controversy regarding the origin of isotopically light graphitic carbon with apatite in the oldest BIF,” said Dr Papineau.

“We’ve shown that biosignatures exist in highly metamorphosed iron formations from Greenland and northeastern Canada which are more than 3,850 million years old and date from the beginning of the sedimentary rock record.”

The work was kindly funded in part by NASA.