Hurricane Lane To Strengthen South Of Hawaii While Generating Large Swells

In the distant footsteps of Hurricane Hector, Hurricane Lane is forecast to experience a similar evolution and take a similar path just south of the Big Island of Hawaii next week.

Hurricane Hector reached Category 4 status but passed well south of Hawaii during early August.

The size and orientation of Lane’s wind field, as well as exactly how far to the south Lane passes the islands, will determine the extent of impacts.

“At this time, we expect the center of Lane to pass about 200 miles south of the southernmost tip of the Big Island Tuesday evening Hawaii time,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

“Based on that track, impacts on at least the Big Island will not be much different than that was experienced with Hector two weeks earlier,” Kottlowski said.

The first impact on the waters surrounding the islands will be large swells spreading westward and northward later this weekend into next week.

Conditions can become dangerous for ocean vessels south of the islands as well as small craft attempting to navigate the inter-island channels next week.

Surf may become too rough and dangerous for most bathers and boarders along the south- and east-facing beaches of the islands by next week.

Breezy conditions with showers and gusty squalls are most likely on the southern and eastern part of the Big Island, but they may spread to the middle and western islands in the String of Pearls by the middle of next week.

“Lane is moving through a belt of warm water and is likely to remain within a zone of low wind shear and sufficiently moist air,” Kottlowski said, adding that these are factors that favor strengthening.

Wind shear is the increase in wind speed at increasing height in the atmosphere and/or the increase in straight-line wind speed over horizontal distance.

“Lane is likely to soon become a major hurricane and then maintain that status for several days while approaching Hawaii,” Kottlowski said.

Download the free AccuWeather app for the latest forecast and bulletins on Hurricane Lane.

Every hurricane, no matter how similar in strength, has some unique characteristics in size and shape. This is due to other weather systems in the nearby region as well as the extent of dry versus moist air and wind shear surrounding the hurricane.

If Lane becomes a compact hurricane and keeps its distance, conditions may not be so rough.

However, if Lane tracks closer to the islands than Hector, then conditions would trend more severe. Likewise, if Lane is more spread out, conditions could get a little worse over the islands, when compared to Hector.

Additional threats from tropical storms and hurricanes are likely into the autumn, due to a developing El Niño.

Because El Niño is a plume of warmer-than-average waters over the tropical Pacific Ocean, the warm water just south of Hawaii can sustain more hurricanes than average over the eastern and central Pacific and cause them to be stronger in nature.

On average, there are approximately five tropical systems per year over the central Pacific basin.

There is a chance that Lane may cross the international date line later in August, but the chance of the system being a hurricane at that time is remote.

Hector survived to cross the date line on Aug. 13 but did so as a tropical storm and not a hurricane. When a hurricane crosses the date line into the western Pacific, it becomes a typhoon.

Hurricane Hector Is Headed Toward Hawaii, Where A Volcano Is Erupting

The Kilauea volcano has spewed lava and molten rock into neighborhoods in Hawaii’s Big Island for three months. Now the area faces a new threat as Hurricane Hector heads in that direction.

Hector was a Category 3 storm early Sunday as it churned toward the Hawaiian Islands, an archipelago that includes the Big Island.

The Hawaiian Islands were placed on alert as Hector inched toward the central Pacific with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

“Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. However, Hector is expected to still be a major hurricane when it moves into the central Pacific basin,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Hector is about 1360 miles (2190 kilometers) east of South Point, Hawaii, and is forecast to cross into the central Pacific by Sunday night or early Monday.

CNN meteorologist Haley Brink said while Hector is heading in Big Island ‘s general direction, it’s too early to tell if it’s on a collision course with the volcano.

“The track of the hurricane still has the center passing well south of the main Hawaiian island at this time,” Brink said Sunday morning. ” It is still too soon to tell what effects this hurricane will have (if any) on the Hawaii islands.”

State officials urged residents to take precaution and prepare for the storm.

“Hector is our first hurricane this year. We want to remind the public we are in the middle of the hurricane season and we urge people to take the weekend to prepare their homes and families for impacts that could be felt statewide,” said Tom Travis, the state’s emergency management administrator.

The Hawaiian Islands include Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Maui, and the island of Hawaii, which is often referred to as the Big Island. The Big Island has been coping with three months of Kilauea’s volcanic eruptions that have sent lava flowing into some neighborhoods.

While the latest eruptions started in May, the volcano has spewed lava since the 1980s, becoming a major tourist destination even as it threatened nearby residents.

The eruptions have displaced thousands of residents, damaged roads and destroyed hundreds of homes.

Myanmar: Tens Of Thousands Displaced As Floods Wreak Havoc

At least 12 people have been killed and tens of thousands displaced in Myanmar after monsoon rains caused flooding across the country, officials said.

“Among the 12 people killed, three are soldiers who were swept away by floodwaters during a rescue operation in northeastern Mon state,” Director-General Ko Ko Naing of the Disaster Management Department said on Thursday.

“Heavy rains are still hampering us from reaching many of those affected places,” he told Anadolu Agency.

An estimated 148,386 people are currently taking refuge in 327 temporary camps in the flood-affected regions.

Nearly 28,000 are still in their flooded homes, either unable to escape to shelters or are opting to stay in the hope that water levels will start to recede, local Myanma Alinn newspaper reports.

“Our house is just beside the river bank so we’re trying to move somewhere higher,” 54-year-old Ohn Myint said.

Farmer and fisherman Win Kyu, 40, is concerned about his fields that now lie completely under water.

“We experienced flooding like this back in 2000. This year is the worst since then,” he said.

“If this goes on, people will struggle to make a living,” Kyu added.

At least 12,140 hectares (30,000 acres) of farmland have been completely destroyed due to the week-long flooding, according to the government.

The country has been facing floods in seven regions since last week as most rivers have exceeded their danger levels by several feet and 36 dams and reservoirs are overflowing due to heavy monsoon rains.

Myanmar experienced severe flooding in 2015 when around 100 people reportedly died and more than 330,000 were forced from their homes.

Hector Rapidly Intensifies Into a Hurricane in the Pacific Ocean, Has an Uncertain Future Next Week Near Hawaii

Hector has rapidly intensified into a hurricane more than 2,000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii and could pass near the islands next week.

Consolidated convection and a developing eye in a small inner core indicated that Hector was becoming better organized Thursday morning. Hector’s maximum sustained winds were 85 mph as of 8 a.m. PDT Thursday, an increase of 40 mph from the same time on Wednesday morning.

Hector is expected to get pushed westward along the southern periphery of high pressure that will be moving westward in tandem, generally gaining strength over the next four to five days. It’s possible that Hector could become a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) by this weekend.

If Hector would continue its straight westward trajectory, it would track several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian island chain mid-late next week.

But there’s one weather feature that could put a glitch in that forecast.

Any weakness in the steering subtropical high to the north of Hector could allow it to creep on a slightly more northward path next week.

The more north it tracks, the bigger direct threat Hector could pose to Hawaii next week. A few of our ensemble forecast model tracks are suggesting a more northward bend.

It is too soon to determine how close Hector will track next week, and thus, what sort of impacts are going to occur.

At least increased swells at particularly south and east-facing beaches are expected as soon as early next week, even if the system passes well to the south.

Climatology’s Impact on the Pacific
A gentle transition toward El Niño has been in progression this summer.

In the Atlantic Basin, this usually means less tropical activity, but the story is different in the Pacific.

By definition, El Niño is warmer-than-average waters in the eastern or central Pacific, which is favorable for tropical systems. Years with El Niño usually have more tropical cyclones than in years with a La Niña or neutral conditions.

Tropical systems like Hector feed on the ocean’s heat to build clouds, thunderstorms and wind.

A trend toward El Niño means tropical systems that develop in the eastern and, sometimes, central Pacific Ocean will likely have more heat on which to feed in the coming months.

In fact, the 80-degree line, which is used as a diffuse border between where tropical systems can develop and where they have a harder time intensifying, is farther north than normal to start August.

This makes a considerable difference for systems moving from Central America westward toward Hawaii. Systems usually run out of warm water before they make it to Hawaii, but this year, a warm bridge of water is in place that might allow systems to make it farther west.

Another piece of this climatological puzzle: Hector has formed in the favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO enhances rainfall and supports tropical cyclones around the world when its enhanced phase of generally rising motion in the atmosphere comes around.

Hector should benefit from this enhanced wave of the MJO for several days.

This recent enhanced phase supported six tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, including Son-Tinh and Jongdari, and two more tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific.

NASA Finds Tropical Storm Jongdari Now Comma Shaped

Tropical Depression Jongdari re-strengthened into a tropical storm when it was southeast of Kyushu, Japan and NASA’s Aqua satellite saw it take on a comma shape.

On July 31 at 0345 UTC (July 30 at 11:45 p.m. EDT), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite provided a visible image of Tropical Storm Jongdari. The image revealed that the storm had taken on a signature comma shape which is associated with a more organized storm, although it is still elongated. The tropical storm has powerful storms around the center and a band extending to the northeast. That’s quite a difference from the very elongated appearance of the system the previous day, when wind shear was battering the system. The sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support intensification as they are as warm as or warmer than the 80 degrees Fahrenheit threshold (26.6 degrees Celsius).

On July 31 at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) Tropical Storm Jongdari was located near 30.1 degrees north latitude and 130.9 degrees east longitude. That’s about 207 nautical miles south-southeast of Sasebo, Japan. Jongdari was moving to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds 35 knots (40 mph/62 kph).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC forecast takes Jongdari in a westerly direction toward China. The JTWC expects Jongdari to make landfall south of Shanghai on August 2.

Monsoon Storm Causes Damage, Knocks Out Power In North Phoenix

Hundreds of thousands of homes woke up to lights out after Monday night’s monsoon storm swept through the Valley.

“From Seventh Street all the way down to here, we just have numerous trees broken down,” Marlo Pressley said. “We’ve just had a lot of walls broken out, so we’ve got a lot of damage.”

Seventy-mile-per-hour winds ripped up trees and tore down power lines in its path. A massive tree that toppled over in a backyard wipe out 1,027 homes of power, alone.

North Phoenix residents inside a neighborhood near Ninth Street and Cochise say the damage is unbelievable.

“We heard a bunch of crashes because the wires were clicking together behind us and then we heard a bunch of and crashes and then a couple trees went down,” Wendy Hartman said.

“It was like a microburst that came through here last night and we were out in it as soon as it started because the trees started breaking right behind my house,” Pressley said. “I was in my house, too. The whole house shook like nobody’s business and then all of a sudden you saw flashes.”

Overnight, APS responded to the outages in this area and they say clean-up has been the biggest challenge.

“We don’t have a specific time because we come up on scenes like this where we have to take down a 60-foot tree, so it just kind of depends on the situation in the neighborhood, but just know that there are a lot of APS crews working non-stop to get everyone back on safely,” Suzanne Trevino said.

Tropical Storm Hector Forms In The East Pacific, May Cross Into Central Pacific Early Next Week

Newly formed Tropical Storm Hector has become better organized over the last twenty-four hours. Additional strengthening is forecast to occur over the next several days. Low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should keep Hector on a path to category one hurricane by Thursday.

Although not a threat to any major land mass at the moment, the system should be monitored as the forecast models have Hector crossing into the Central Pacific on Monday.

For the weekend, additional showers could move through the islands this weekend. The surge of shower activity is not related to Tropical Storm Hector.