UPDATED: Science Of Cycles Important Announcement

Here is an update to Science Of Cycles moving forward

I have been able to put off the Spectrum commitment for 7 days – for the reason that four people have come forward with $100 monthly commitments to keep SOC available to everyone. If just six more folks come forward with the same commitment, we will be off and running within 7to 10 days.

However, it certainly could be one person with a $500 monthly provision and one person with a $100 stipend or some combination thereof and we’re set. Note: When using this email address to reply (earthchanges@earthlink.net) you might get a auto-response to confirm you are not a robot – which is used to minimize spam of course.

Below is the original letter:

I am speaking with Spectrum network that offers a news channel in addition to their regular lineup. They are interested in my services to produce a science broadcast focused on many of the topics I cover on SOC.

Sounds great, and I should be jubilant; however, there is a reason I have not accepted previous offers. From past experience as well as speaking to many scientists I have interviewed over the years, I am reminded when you sell your services to agencies such as NASA and NOAA, freedom of expression is thwarted…and sometimes to extreme measures.

So before I sign on with Spectrum, I feel a strong compulsion to try one last time to maintain my independence, allowing me to present to you an unedited full throat analysis of events discovered and a full perspective of current research which is often not easily made available to the public.

With this in mind, I present this final evaluation. To maintain SOC services available to everyone, a need of a few sponsors to support a monthly provision of $1,000, or an annual support of $12,000. As you might have guessed, these amounts are simply to offset other expenses I incur. Whether it is one sponsor or divided by twenty sponsors, the sum amount remains the same of $12,000 yr. or $1,200 monthly.

In the last two years I have experimented with community based funding by placing a donation banner along with occasional special interest request. Although the community based funding did accomplish a significant goal – keeping this information available to everyone – I did find myself digging deep into my own pockets, which is simply not sustainable.

A benefit to you as a sponsor: I am more than happy to provide you with as much or as little exposure as you wish. In the ways of exposure, I will provide whatever advertising you need in the way of banners, announcements, tags on newsletters, and to provide a bit more exposure – I will announce you or company when I am a guest on talk shows and conferences.

My presumption is that you would agree that maintaining an emphasis of keeping our latest news and research available to everyone is a worthy cause. Perhaps the first and most important reason is the fact that the latest scientific findings of trends and cycles are likely to have an impact on all of us and I hope to have the freedom to inform you without restraint and in real-time.

I hope you find this proposal pleasing, and I look forward to further discussions to make sure we have win on all sides. You can contact me at: **earthchanges@earthlink.net**

Cheers, Mitch Battros

Underwater Volcano Chain Discovered Off Coast Of Tasmania

Scientists have discovered an underwater chain of volcanoes off the coast of Tasmania. A team from the Australian National University mapped the submerged terrain during a voyage aboard the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) research ship “Investigator.”

The underwater peaks, or seamounts, reach more than 9,000 feet high, but vary in shape and size. Researchers hope having detailed maps of the underwater area will help protect the environment, while aiding in future research.

“This is a very diverse landscape and will undoubtedly be a biological hotspot that supports a dazzling array of marine life,” Dr. Tara Martin from the CSIRO mapping team said in a statement.

So far, data from the research ship has already revealed increased marine life activity along the volcano chain.

“While we were over the chain of seamounts, the ship was visited by large numbers of humpback and long-finned pilot whales,” said Dr. Eric Woehler, who was aboard the Investigator. “Clearly these seamounts are a biological hotspot that supports life, both directly on them, as well as in the ocean above.”

According to Dr. Woehler, the whales may be using the seafloor to help navigate their way through the ocean during migration from winter breeding to summer feeding grounds.

The next step for researchers is to head back to the area, located about 250 miles east of Tasmania, off Australia’s southern coast. The Investigator has a voyage this month, and then another one in December. During the trips, researchers will be gathering high-resolution video of marine life, as well as collecting rock samples to study how this formed.

BREAKING NEWS: 6.8 Earthquake Hits North Tip of Cascadia Subduction Zone

Three powerful earthquakes struck off the coast of British Columbia Sunday night within an hour. This area sits at the northern end of the Cascadia Subduction Zone which is monitored closely due to its prediction of a cyclical mega-quake.

The United States Geological Survey reports a preliminary magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck near Port Hardy, Canada at 10:39 p.m. local time at a depth of about 7 miles (11 kilometers).

At 11:16 p.m., a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the same area at a depth of 13 miles (21 kilometers). At 11:22 p.m. a magnitude 6.5 earthquake struck the same area at a depth of 6 miles (10 kilometers). The U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center reported that a tsunami was not expected.

There was no initial word on damage or injury resulting from the quakes. The earthquakes centered about 355 miles northwest of Seattle. Several smaller quakes followed, including a 4.9-magnitude temblor at 11:36 p.m. PDT.

JUST IN: Cosmic Ray Particles That Tunnel Through Earth

A fountain of high-energy particles that resembles an upside-down cosmic-ray shower is detected for the second time by the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA).

ANITA detected an unexpected signal – radio waves coming from the ice with an inverted phase. The detection suggest the signals came from upward-moving particles that tunneled through Earth before erupting from the ice.

In a paper published in the journal American Geophysical Union (AGU) Space Weather, associate professor Nathan Schwadron of the UNH Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS) and the department of physics says that due to this solar cycles vast drop in solar activity, a stream of cosmic ray particles are flooding Earth’s atmosphere – and further driving in and through Earth’s core.

In addition to a lower solar minimum cycle, Earth’s magnetic field continues to weaken which also allows a greater number of cosmic particles to enter our atmosphere. Some cosmic charged particles known as Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECR) are millions of times greater in kinetic energy than cosmic rays. These powerful particles plow right through Earth’s upper and lower mantle, into the outer and inner core.

My research suggest the radiation of these particles has a significant influence on Earth’s core by increasing temperatures. As a natural result, Earth compensates to maintain its ambient temperature. This is done by sweating. Just as us humans sweat through our pores to manage an overheated body, the Earth sweats by releasing magma through its pores known as ‘mantle plumes’.

More Coming Later…


New Maps To Support Decision-Making After An Earthquake

Researchers from diverse institutions, including the School of Land Surveying, Geodesy and Mapping Engineering from Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, have developed a new methodology to create easy-to-understand maps for decision-making support after large earthquakes.

By using spatial geodesic techniques, such as the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and the Interferometric synthetic aperture radar, (InSAR), researchers have developed a methodology to estimate the activation of faults and volcanoes in a region after an earthquake. The results are presented in a traffic light scale in order to improve the transfer of the obtained scientific results after an earthquake to the management of this post-event.

This study has been led by researchers from Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Complutense (UCM) and the Geological and Mining Institute of Spain (IGME) and published in the journal Remote Sensing.

The developed methodology was applied to the earthquake that occurred in April 2016 in Pedernales (Mw 7.8), and is based on the estimation of effort changes in nearby faults and volcanoes which are the consequences of the energy release after an earthquake. To do this, researchers combined, modeled and assessed geological data from catalogs of faults and volcanoes in the area; they also assessed data from the cosmic deformation caused by an earthquake and obtained with techniques of spatial geodesics: InSAR- Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS.

From the results of this analysis, researchers developed a set of simplified maps represented with a traffic light scale to find out if an earthquake will be activated after a volcano. To quantify this estimation is a challenge to be developed in future research.

Although the techniques used for the analysis and modeling of data are widely used in the scientific field, the novelty of this study lies in the transfer of these results to the post-event management field. This methodology could also be adapted to pre-event management.

Europe’s Most Active Volcano Is Sliding Into The Sea

Perched on the northeastern edge of Sicily, Italy’s Mount Etna is a hyperactive volcano capable of producing incandescent lava flows as well as explosive, lightning-surrounded pyrotechnics. It’s also sliding into the Ionian Sea—and a new study provides fresh evidence as to why.

It’s been known for some time that the so-called Roof of the Mediterranean has been on the move. Etna is not slipping quickly; on average, its migration is happening at a rate several times slower than the growth rate of your fingernails. But geologists have been hunting for the exact cause of the volcano’s motion, since it’s linked to the risk that the fiery mountain may suffer a catastrophic collapse.

About a million people live on Etna’s slopes, and millions more reside on the coastlines across the Ionian sea. If part of the volcano near the shoreline becomes unstable and falls into the water, it could create mega-tsunamis that would devastate the shores of the eastern Mediterranean.

“A massive collapse would be a disaster for a vast and densely populated area,” says Boris Behncke, a volcanologist at the Etna Observatory at Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology who was not involved in the latest work. (Find out why people chose to live in the shadows of active volcanoes.)

Etna’s slippery slope
For their new study, published today in Science Advances, a team led by Morelia Urlaub at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany, deployed several underwater transponders around Etna’s southeastern flank, which they suspect is the most mobile section of the mountain.

These transponders contained pressure sensors that picked up on the slightest movements of the offshore flank. The devices also recorded their positions relative to each other, which meant that the team could detect movement of the flank compared to the more stable parts of the terrain.

According to the team, their results show that gravity is the primary force causing this flank of the volcano to move. Magma rising inside the volcano also plays a role, but the team thinks it has less of an overall effect on Etna’s seaward slide.

The new results “take us into the exciting realm of underwater monitoring for the first time at Etna,” says volcanologist John Murray of the U.K.’s Open University, who was not involved in the new work. Murray led a previous study that also looked at Etna’s slippage, and he says the new data are in line with his team’s observations, in that “magmatic forces are less important than gravitational spreading in the outward expansion of Etna.”

Until recently, many experts thought that shallow magma injections within the fiery mountain were the primary drivers of this volcano’s displacement. Indeed, during some of Etna’s eruptions, monitoring devices have recorded movements of tens of feet. This makes sense: Rising magma can inflate parts of the mountain, adding extra weight to sections of it and causing structural weaknesses to appear.

But Etna’s southeastern flank tends to slip in fits and bursts, and not all of that motion is linked to internal, molten turmoil.

Keeping a close eye on things between April 2016 and July 2017, the latest monitoring effort detected one case of major movement around mid-May of 2017, when the volcano’s flank jutted forward into the sea by an inch or two. This activity coincided with the eight-day movement of a local fault.

The team agrees that rising magma does play a role, because other flank accelerations match up nicely with unambiguous intrusions of new molten material. But the fact that such huge deformations are also occurring far from the magma-dominated summit suggests that gravity is the star of the show—a notion shared by other research groups.

In April, Murray’s team reported on their work using hundreds of onshore GPS kits to assess Etna’s movement. Their data indicated that, from 2001 to 2012, Etna moved toward the Ionian Sea in a southeasterly direction at a rate of 0.6 inches (about 14 millimeters) every year. These researchers also suspect that gravity is the driving force, pushing Etna along on a layer of loosely packed sediments.

Gravity will bring you down
The April study suggested that the entire volcano was moving, but the new paper only looked at the southeastern flank. Still, with both studies in mind, “it seems that the consensus is shifting toward gravitationally driven sliding as the dominant mechanism” for Etna’s movement, says Urlaub.

The new study’s interpretations are quite reasonable, Behncke says, although he adds that the situation is complex, and it’s likely that contributions from gravitational pulls and magmatic movements vary with time. Both factors are also connected, with gravitationally driven flank movements allowing magmatic intrusions to take place.

“It’s very difficult to make definitive statements unless the methods used by the authors are applied over a much longer period, encompassing a broader area,” he says.

There’s also the question of whether the southeastern flank movement could one day turn into a catastrophic collapse. Urlaub’s data indicates that it’s possible, although she notes that there’s not yet enough information to say for sure. Geologists need decades’ worth of monitoring data before they can tell the difference between normal and fast slippage.

There’s presently no sign of an imminent collapse on Etna’s slopes, but a lack of data on any similar incident means that there isn’t any way to tell when a major flank collapse might occur. No wonder, then, that Etna is one of the most heavily monitored volcanoes on Earth.

NASA Checks Out Hurricane Sergio’s Cloud Temperature

NASA’s Aqua satellite peered into Hurricane Sergio with infrared light to determine if the storm was intensifying or weakening. Infrared data showed cloud top temperatures were getting warmer on the western half of the storm, indicating the uplift of air in storms had weakened.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Hurricane Sergio on Oct. 9 at 6:17 a.m. EDT (1017 UTC). AIRS uses infrared light and infrared light provides scientists with temperature data and that’s important when trying to understand how strong storms can be. The higher the cloud tops, the colder and the stronger they are. So infrared light as that gathered by the AIRS instrument can identify the strongest areas of a tropical cyclone.

At the time Aqua passed overhead, coldest cloud top temperatures in thunderstorms circled the eye and appeared in fragmented bands of thunderstorms north and south of the center. Those temperatures were as cold as or colder than minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius). The exception was on the western side of the storm, where cloud top temperatures were warming, meaning they were not getting as high in the atmosphere.

Despite the slow weakening the hurricane still has a large but well-defined inner-core in the low and mid-levels.

The National Hurricane Center noted at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 16.6 degrees north and longitude 127.4 degrees west. That’s 1,215 miles (1,960 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.

Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 kph). A faster northeastward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 kph) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days.

NHC noted that there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Sergio.